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やっぱり大不況がやってくる。

Posted on August 23, 2020 at 4:58 AM

音楽活動をはじめた頃、

まだ大正生まれの高齢者の方がたくさん施設にいらっしゃった。

その頃、語り部は

皆さんが生まれた頃
①関東大震災(大正11年)が起こった。
と 話をしていた。



続いてアメリカのバブル崩壊に起因して
②世界大恐慌(昭和4~)が勃発。
日本も大不況に見舞われた。

アメリカでは当初3年間でGDPが27%縮小したという。

日本は大不況を脱するために海外に覇権・・・・これが
③満州国建国となる。

日本とアメリカのアジアへの覇権争いの結果・・・
④大東亜戦争がはじまった。

⑤日本は敗戦したけれど、皆さんの努力で
世界の第二位の経済大国となり。
世界有数の幸せな国となった

こんな話をしていたことを思い出した。


大不況がやってくる。
先般 4-6月期のGDPの速報値が(GDP成長率)ニュースになった。

前年比で年換算すると27.8%のダウン(約30%ダウンと考える)が見込まれるという。

←先進諸国の中で日本は健闘している。イギリスは約60%のダウン。

GDPは労働者の賃金の源資である。
1時間あたり・・・GDPの28%が賃金だと言われている。

少し乱暴だけれど30%の賃金ダウンと捉えると

月30万の賃金が21万円に下がる。
年収500万円なら 年収350万円になるということ。
150万円の減。

多くの企業は社員給料の減額より。
すなわちリストラに動くだろう。
失業者が増えていく。

会社都合の失業保険
賃金の5~6割の額で6~7ヶ月支給される。

失業保険の給付が切れた時
不況は拡大していて就職先がない。
これが大不況の姿。
景気回復まで仕事につけない状況が長くつづくことになる。
失業率が高くなる。

大東亜戦争。その戦後10年間と同じように
・・・身近な人間関係の助け合いが必要となる。

不況対策 第一の矢 第二の矢
それでも日本の政治はコロナ対策をしながら一方で壊滅的な打撃を受けている①旅行業や②外食部門に補助金を出して支えようとしている。

これから矢継ぎ早の対策が必要である。
まさに政治が前面に出なければならない。

日本の政治力がほんとうに試される。
ここでやれなければならない。

コロナより怖い大不況を防ぐために!

大手のマスメディアは コロナ、コロナと感染者の人数を念仏のように
嘆いているだけ。
政府の経済対策を非難するだけ。

年間GDP27.8%減でどのような世の中になるか?
誰も直視して語ろうとしない。

死のリスクはコロナ感染より
これから来る大不況の方が
はるかに怖い。

歴史を学ぶということは、
将来を予測できる力をつけること。

容易ならぬ不況を乗り越えるために
何をすべきなのだろうか?




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